S979: Untested Refugees & Illegal Migrant risk to India:

Note on Refugees and Illegal Immigrant Risks to India from Bangladeshi, Sri Lankan, Pakistani, and Nepali Aliens

India, due to its strategic location, relatively stable economy, and democratic framework, has long been a destination for refugees and illegal immigrants from neighboring countries, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Nepal. While India has a history of providing refuge to persecuted groups, the influx of refugees and illegal immigrants, particularly from these nations, poses significant socio-economic, security, and demographic challenges. This note examines the risks associated with these migrations, drawing on historical context, recent cases, and available data, while addressing the complexities of distinguishing between refugees and illegal immigrants.

1. Historical Context and Scale of Influx

Since its independence in 1947, India has hosted refugees from neighboring countries, including:

• Bangladeshi Refugees and Immigrants: An estimated 10 million people, predominantly Hindus, fled to India during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War to escape genocide and persecution. Ongoing illegal migration, driven by economic hardship, political instability, and environmental crises (e.g., floods and cyclones), has continued, with estimates ranging from 3.1 million (2001 Census) to 20 million illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in India.
• Sri Lankan Refugees: Over 100,000 Tamil refugees fled to India, primarily Tamil Nadu, during the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983–2009) due to ethnic persecution. As of January 2021, 58,843 Sri Lankan refugees resided in 108 camps in Tamil Nadu and 54 in Odisha.
• Pakistani Refugees: Approximately 350,000 Pakistani Hindus live in India, particularly in northern states like Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Haryana, with 5,000 arriving annually due to religious persecution.
• Nepali Migrants: While Nepal shares an open border with India under the 1950 Indo-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship, illegal overstays and undocumented migration occur, though specific numbers are less documented. Nepali migrants are often economic migrants seeking better opportunities in India.

India’s lack of a national refugee law and non-signatory status to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention result in an ad-hoc approach, with only Tibetans and Sri Lankans officially recognized as refugees. Others, like Rohingya or Bangladeshi Muslims, are often labeled illegal immigrants, complicating their legal status.

2. Risks to India

The influx of refugees and illegal immigrants from these countries presents several risks:

a. National Security Concerns

• Border Infiltration and Crime: The porous 4,096-km India-Bangladesh border facilitates illegal crossings, with human traffickers and fake document syndicates aiding migrants. For example, a 2025 Tripura Police report noted 816 Bangladeshi nationals and 79 Rohingya arrested between January and February 2024, with 483 apprehensions since August 2024 following political unrest in Bangladesh. Posts on X also highlight concerns about illegal Bangladeshi and Rohingya settlers in sensitive areas like Jammu & Kashmir, potentially posing security risks.
• Terrorism and Radicalization: Indian authorities have expressed concerns about Rohingya refugees, often conflated with Bangladeshi migrants, being labeled as potential “terrorists” or “termites” by officials like Kiren Rijiju in 2017. While evidence is limited, such rhetoric fuels public fear and justifies deportations.
• Cross-Border Tensions: Illegal immigration strains India’s relations with Bangladesh, particularly after events like the 2024 fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, which led to increased border crossings. Resistance from Bangladesh Border Guards to India’s border fencing efforts further complicates security measures.

b. Socio-Economic Challenges

• Resource Strain: Illegal immigrants, particularly from Bangladesh, compete for low-wage jobs in unorganized sectors like construction and domestic work, driving down wages and displacing local workers. A 2025 JNU report highlighted how Bangladeshi and Rohingya migrants in Delhi access government welfare schemes using fraudulent documents, straining public resources.
• Demographic Disruption: In states like Assam, West Bengal, and Tripura, illegal immigration has altered demographics. For instance, Tripura’s local Tripuri population decreased from 59.1% in 1951 to 31.1% in 2011 due to Bangladeshi influx. The 1983 Nellie massacre in Assam, which killed at least 2,191 people, was triggered by resentment over illegal immigration.
• Urban Congestion: Cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata face overcrowding in slums, where illegal immigrants settle, leading to strained infrastructure and increased competition for housing and services.

c. Political and Social Tensions

• Anti-Immigrant Sentiment: Political rhetoric, such as Amit Shah’s 2018 comparison of Bangladeshi immigrants to “termites,” fuels xenophobia and communal tensions, particularly against Muslim migrants. Posts on X amplify this, claiming 20–50 million illegal Bangladeshi and Rohingya settlers threaten India’s security and economy.
• Electoral Manipulation: Allegations of illegal immigrants obtaining fake voter IDs (e.g., Aadhaar cards) raise concerns about electoral integrity. The JNU report noted that political patronage facilitates such activities, impacting local politics in states like Assam and Delhi.
• Ethnic Conflicts: In Assam, tensions between local Bodo groups and Bangladeshi migrants have led to violence, such as the 1993 Kokrajhar-Bongaigaon clashes. Nepali migrants in Bhutan and India have also sparked security concerns due to ethnic unrest.

d. Environmental and Humanitarian Issues

• Climate-Induced Migration: Bangladesh’s vulnerability to floods, cyclones, and sea-level rise drives “crisis migrants” to India’s Sunderbans region, where they are often not recognized as refugees. This exacerbates land and resource conflicts.
• Humanitarian Dilemma: India’s ad-hoc refugee policy leads to inconsistent treatment. For instance, Sri Lankan Tamils and Tibetans receive support, while Rohingya face detention and deportation risks, despite UNHCR registration.

3. Recent Cases and Developments

• Bangladeshi Influx (2024–2025): Following the fall of Bangladesh’s Awami League government in August 2024, Tripura reported 483 arrests of illegal immigrants, including 155 Hindus and 20 Buddhists, highlighting the scale of recent crossings. Assam’s Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma reported 1,000 pushbacks between August 2024 and January 2025.
• Sri Lankan Tamils: While most Tamil refugees are in camps, some have integrated into Tamil Nadu’s society. However, their legal status remains contentious, with calls for inclusion in the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) 2019, which excludes Muslims but grants citizenship to persecuted minorities from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
• Pakistani Hindus: Annual inflows of 5,000 Hindus continue, with many settling in northern India. The CAA facilitates their citizenship, but bureaucratic delays and local resistance persist.
• Nepali Migrants: Though less documented, Nepali overstays in northern India contribute to economic migration, with fewer security concerns compared to Bangladeshi inflows but still straining local resources.
• Rohingya Conflation: Rohingya refugees (22,500 registered with UNHCR) are often mistaken for Bangladeshi migrants, leading to arbitrary detentions and deportation threats, as seen in a 2021 Assam case where a 14-year-old Rohingya girl could not be deported due to Myanmar’s refusal to accept her.

4. Policy Framework and Challenges

• Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) 2019: The CAA grants citizenship to non-Muslim minorities from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan who entered before December 31, 2014, but excludes Muslims, leading to accusations of discrimination. It does not cover Sri Lankan Tamils or Nepali Hindus, causing political discontent.
• National Register of Citizens (NRC): Implemented in Assam to identify illegal immigrants, the NRC has been controversial, with 1.9 million people excluded in the final 2019 list. Plans for a nationwide NRC face logistical and humanitarian challenges.
• Lack of Refugee Law: India’s non-signatory status to the 1951 Refugee Convention and absence of a national refugee law lead to arbitrary classifications of refugees as illegal immigrants, particularly affecting Rohingya and Bangladeshi Muslims.
• Border Management: Efforts to fence the India-Bangladesh border face resistance from Bangladesh, and the open India-Nepal border complicates monitoring. The Border Security Force (BSF) has deployed AI-enabled cameras, but gaps remain.

5. Mitigation Strategies

• National Refugee Policy: India should develop a comprehensive refugee law to distinguish between refugees and economic migrants, aligning with humanitarian principles while addressing security concerns.
• Bilateral Cooperation: Engage Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Nepal in repatriation agreements and joint border management. UNHCR assistance could facilitate verification and repatriation, as seen with Sri Lankan refugees.
• Border Security: Enhance fencing, surveillance, and inter-agency cooperation, as initiated in Tripura, to curb illegal crossings.
• Integration Support: Provide legal pathways for recognized refugees (e.g., Sri Lankan Tamils) and support economic migrants through skill development to reduce resource strain.
• Public Awareness: Counter anti-immigrant rhetoric through campaigns to reduce xenophobia and promote understanding of refugee plights, especially for persecuted minorities.

6. Conclusion

The influx of refugees and illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Nepal poses multifaceted risks to India, including security threats, socio-economic strain, demographic changes, and political tensions. While historical refugee waves (e.g., 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War) were driven by persecution, recent migrations are often economic or climate-induced, complicating India’s response. The CAA and NRC aim to address some issues but face criticism for selective application and logistical challenges. A balanced approach, combining robust border security, a clear refugee policy, and regional cooperation, is essential to mitigate risks while upholding India’s humanitarian legacy. Recent cases, such as increased Bangladeshi crossings post-2024, underscore the urgency of addressing these challenges systematically.

Note: Estimates of illegal immigrants vary widely and are often politically charged. For instance, claims of 20 million Bangladeshi immigrants lack verifiable data, as acknowledged by the Indian government in 2023. Critical examination of such figures is necessary to avoid exaggeration and ensure informed policy-making.