Pahalgam Analysed..

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Below is an updated Antecedent-Behavior-Consequences (ABC) analysis of the Pahalgam terrorist attack (April 22, 2025, in Baisaran Valley, Jammu and Kashmir), incorporating the role of religious bias in Islamic neighbors (Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation) and the influence of British colonialism. This analysis builds on the previous response, adding the requested elements while maintaining the ABC framework.

ABC Analysis of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack (April 22, 2025)

Antecedent (What Led to the Event)

The antecedents are the conditions, events, or triggers that set the stage for the attack, including religious bias in Islamic neighbors and the legacy of British colonialism.

1. Political and Historical Context:

• Revocation of Article 370 (2019): India’s decision to abrogate Article 370, ending Jammu and Kashmir’s special autonomy, and the subsequent issuance of over 83,000 domicile certificates to non-locals fueled resentment among some Kashmiri groups and militants. The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), cited opposition to non-local settlement as a motive for the attack.
• British Colonial Legacy: British colonialism’s “divide and rule” policy exacerbated religious and ethnic tensions in South Asia, particularly through the 1947 Partition, which created Pakistan as a Muslim-majority state and left Kashmir as a disputed territory. The British failure to resolve Kashmir’s status during decolonization sowed seeds for the India-Pakistan conflict, with Pakistan viewing Kashmir as its “jugular vein” (as reiterated by Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir in April 2025). This historical grievance continues to fuel militancy, including the Pahalgam attack.
• Religious Bias in Pakistan: Pakistan’s state policy has historically leveraged Islamic identity to oppose India, rooted in the two-nation theory that justified Partition. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has been accused of supporting groups like LeT and TRF, which target Hindus to destabilize India. The attackers’ religious targeting (e.g., asking victims to recite the Kalma) reflects this bias, aiming to polarize communities along Hindu-Muslim lines. Pakistan Army Chief Munir’s April 16, 2025, speech emphasizing Kashmir’s Islamic significance and religious differences with Hindus was seen as a precursor to the attack.
• Religious Bias in Bangladesh: While Bangladesh’s role in the Pahalgam attack is less direct, its growing radicalization post-2024 regime change (ousting Sheikh Hasina) has strengthened anti-India sentiment and Islamic extremist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and Hizb-ut-Tahrir. These groups, with alleged Pakistan backing, aim to establish an Islamic state, potentially amplifying anti-Hindu rhetoric that aligns with Pakistan’s narrative on Kashmir. Indian security agencies note Pakistan’s ISI collaborating with Bangladesh-based groups like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) to destabilize India’s northeast, indirectly supporting anti-India militancy.
• Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC): The OIC’s statement post-Pahalgam, issued at Pakistan’s behest, failed to condemn the attack and instead framed Kashmir as a “dispute,” echoing Pakistan’s propaganda. India criticized this as “absurd” and reflective of bias, as the OIC ignored evidence of Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism links. The OIC’s consistent support for Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, rooted in Islamic solidarity, amplifies religious bias against India’s multi-religious framework, indirectly legitimizing militant narratives.

1. Security Lapses:

• Inadequate Security in Baisaran Valley: Baisaran had no drones, surveillance cameras, or alert systems, and no clearance was granted for its operation as a tourist site, making it vulnerable.
• Intelligence Failures: Generic warnings about attacks on tourist areas like Srinagar and Pulwama were not specific to Baisaran, which lacked a prior attack history, leading to complacency.
• Tourist Influx: The attack coincided with peak tourism season, with hundreds of thousands visiting Kashmir, making civilians soft targets. The Modi government’s “normalcy” narrative post-2019 may have reduced vigilance.

1. Militant Planning:

• Reconnaissance: LeT terrorists conducted reconnaissance at four tourist spots (Baisaran, Aru, Betaab, and an amusement park), choosing Baisaran for its minimal security. The attackers stayed in the area for two days prior.
• Religious Motivation: The attackers targeted Hindu tourists, using questions like “Hindu hai, Muslim hai?” or demanding recitation of the Kalma to identify non-Muslims, reflecting a religiously motivated strategy to incite communal discord.

Behavior (What Happened During the Event)

The behavior encompasses the actions taken by the perpetrators and immediate responses during the attack.

1. Execution of the Attack:

• Date and Location: On April 22, 2025, five militants armed with M4 carbines and AK-47s attacked tourists in Baisaran Valley, Pahalgam, killing 26 civilians (24 Hindu tourists, one Christian, one Muslim pony handler, and one Nepali) and injuring 20.
• Tactics: The attackers fired 70 rounds over 10–20 minutes, targeting victims based on religious identity. They asked questions like “Are you Hindu or Muslim?” or demanded recitation of the Kalma, shooting those identified as non-Muslims at point-blank range. In some cases, victims were stripped to ascertain religious identity (e.g., checking for Hindu markers).
• Victims: Notable victims included an Indian Navy lieutenant, Vinay Narwal, shot after being identified as Hindu, and a newlywed couple killed after admitting their Hindu identity. A Pune tourist’s daughter recounted her father being shot after failing to recite an Islamic verse.

1. Perpetrators:

• Identified Attackers: Four terrorists were identified: Ali Bhai alias Talha (Pakistani), Asif Fauji (Pakistani), Adil Hussain Thoker (Anantnag), and Ahsan (Pulwama). A fifth, Hashim Moosa, is believed to be hiding in south Kashmir.
• Masterminds: LeT commanders Hafeez Saeed and Saifullah Kasuri, based in Pakistan, were linked to the attack, with TRF initially claiming responsibility (later retracted). The National Investigation Agency (NIA) confirmed an operational nexus between Pakistan’s ISI and LeT.
• Religious Bias in Action: The attackers’ deliberate targeting of Hindus, using Islamic verses as a litmus test, reflects a religiously motivated strategy, influenced by Pakistan’s broader anti-Hindu narrative and the ISI’s use of LeT to destabilize India.

1. Immediate Response:

• No immediate security response occurred during the attack. Injured victims were carried by fellow tourists and pony handlers due to the absence of evacuation or medical mechanisms.
• The attack exploited Baisaran’s resonant mountainous terrain and lack of security infrastructure.

Consequences (What Resulted from the Event)

The consequences outline the outcomes and impacts of the attack, including those tied to religious bias and colonial legacies.

1. Human and Social Impact:

• Loss of Life and Trauma: The deaths of 26 civilians, primarily Hindus, and injuries to 20 others caused widespread trauma. Survivors, like a daughter witnessing her father’s execution, reported profound psychological impact.
• Communal Polarization: The religious targeting of Hindus fueled anti-Muslim sentiment in India, leading to harassment of Kashmiris in cities like Jammu and Punjab. Slogans like “Jai Shri Ram” were used by mobs targeting Kashmiri Muslims, reflecting a retaliatory religious bias. Sikh volunteers provided safe spaces for Kashmiris, but the attack deepened communal divides.
• Economic Disruption: Kashmir’s tourism industry (7% of GDP) faced cancellations, impacting local workers like pony handlers and shikara operators.

1. Security and Political Ramifications:

• Security Failures Exposed: The attack revealed gaps in India’s security grid and intelligence coordination, undermining the Modi government’s “normalcy” narrative post-Article 370.
• India’s Response: India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025, targeting nine terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, killing figures like Abdul Rauf Azhar (Jaish-e-Mohammed). India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, closed the Attari border, and expelled Pakistani nationals.
• Pakistan’s Denial and Bias: Pakistan denied involvement, with Defense Minister Khawaja Asif calling the attack a possible “false flag.” However, a Pakistani Air Force officer’s admission of “tactical brilliance” in the 2019 Pulwama attack indirectly validated India’s claims of Pakistan’s terror sponsorship. Pakistan’s rejection of evidence and OIC’s biased statement reflect a pattern of deflecting responsibility.
• OIC’s Role: The OIC’s failure to condemn the attack and its framing of Kashmir as a “dispute” at Pakistan’s urging reinforced perceptions of Islamic bias against India’s secular framework, escalating diplomatic tensions.

1. Regional and International Impact:

• India-Pakistan Tensions: Pakistan conducted military exercises near the Line of Control and closed airspaces, anticipating Indian retaliation. The withdrawal from the 1972 Simla Agreement signaled further escalation.
• Bangladesh’s Indirect Role: While not directly involved, Bangladesh’s growing radicalization (e.g., JeI’s push for an Islamic state) and ISI’s presence near its border with India strengthen anti-India networks, potentially supporting future attacks.
• International Response: The U.S., Israel, and others condemned the attack, with the U.S. supporting India’s “right to defend itself.” The UN Security Council called for accountability but avoided naming Pakistan, reflecting OIC’s influence.
• Colonial Legacy’s Echoes: The attack’s roots in the Kashmir dispute, a byproduct of British colonial partition, highlight how unresolved territorial and religious divisions continue to fuel violence. Pakistan’s use of Islamic identity to claim Kashmir perpetuates this colonial legacy.

1. Long-Term Implications:

• Security Reforms: The attack necessitates stronger intelligence and security measures in Kashmir, particularly for tourist areas.
• Communal Tensions: The religious targeting risks long-term Hindu-Muslim polarization, with Kashmiris facing “collective punishment” through detentions and raids.
• Diplomatic Challenges: India’s actions (e.g., suspending the Indus Waters Treaty) and OIC’s biased stance complicate regional stability, with Bangladesh’s radicalization adding a new threat vector.
• Connection to Misgendery/Messogendry: The attack’s religious targeting aligns with “misgendery” (hatred based on identity, here religious rather than gender) and contributes to “messogendry” (chaotic social relations), as it created a messy state of communal distrust and violence, exacerbated by Pakistan’s and OIC’s religious bias.

Additional Notes

• Religious Bias in Islamic Neighbors: Pakistan’s ISI and LeT’s targeting of Hindus, supported by rhetoric like Munir’s, reflects a deliberate anti-Hindu bias rooted in the two-nation theory. Bangladesh’s radical groups, while not directly linked to Pahalgam, amplify anti-India sentiment, potentially supporting similar narratives. The OIC’s refusal to condemn the attack and its pro-Pakistan stance underscore a broader Islamic solidarity bias that sidelines India’s perspective.
• British Colonialism’s Role: The unresolved Kashmir dispute, a legacy of British partition policies, continues to drive India-Pakistan conflict. The British “divide and rule” strategy, which deepened Hindu-Muslim divisions, indirectly fuels modern militancy by providing a historical grievance exploited by groups like LeT.
• If you’d like further details on specific aspects (e.g., OIC’s role, Bangladesh’s radicalization, or colonial history), let me know!